Well, it was a good run for Rashad McCants.

I'll certainly miss his uncanny ability to block out his low shooting percentage and pull the trigger with a hand in his face with 18 seconds left on the shot clock.

I'll miss the way he stands in the corner behind the three-point line, slumping his shoulders and pouting when the point guard drives to the basket rather than kicking the ball out.

I'll miss how he is frequently the only guy not paying attention to what the head coach is saying/drawing up in the huddle -- instead, choosing to chew gum and stare into the crowd.

I'll also miss his appearances on the Sludge and Lake Show. Monotone voice, dead air and all.

I'll miss his clothing line. Or is that still in business?

It was a good run.

(From first week of February)

The biggest question for any team interested in signing Joe Crede is whether or not his surgically repaired back is healthy enough to endure the grind of a six-month season.

I’ll leave it up to team doctors to decide how healthy Crede is, but I’ll take it upon myself to show you what Crede’s future employer can expect from him between the white lines.

OFFENSE

Offensively, Crede peaked in 2006, hitting .283/.323/.506 with 30 HR. Prior to that, Crede struggled for the better part of four seasons.

So what led to his breakout in 2006? Well, from ’05 to ’06 Crede lowered his strikeout rate from 15.3% to 10.6%, and he increased his fly ball rate from 45.4% to 50.7% while maintaining a slight drop in line drive rate (19% down to 17.8%).

A lot of numbers. Deep breath.

It’s pretty obvious why lowering one’s strikeout rate is important, but what’s the big deal with Crede raising his fly ball rate? Why does that matter?

It matters because roughly 11-12% of Crede’s fly balls go over the fence for home runs throughout his career. Not to mention, Crede plays his home games at U.S. Cellular Field, which is one of the most HR-friendly parks in the Major Leagues. From 2003-2007, U.S. Cellular has the highest HR park factor of any stadium in baseball (1.26).

In other words, more fly balls = more home runs for Joe Crede at U.S. Cellular Field, as long as he still maintains a steady line drive rate as well (otherwise we’d have a guy who hits all grounders and flies, and that’s not exactly a model for consistency…). His batting average may drop as a result, but the power numbers go up.

So, obviously, for any team inquiring about Crede’s services for 2009, the expectation is that Crede can perform like he did in 2006. But is that possible? Coming off a back injury? At age 31?

For starters, 31 isn’t THAT old. It’s definitely on the backside of a player’s prime, but Crede has only played more than 144 games ONCE since 2003. So aside from surgery, he has more tread on the tires than some other 31-year-olds.

And secondly, Crede showed some interesting trends in his shortened 2008 campaign (after a throw-away, injury-laden 2007 season). He was forced to bow out after the All-Star Break, but Crede finished 2008 hitting .248/.314/.460 with 17 HRs in only 373 plate appearances.

His biggest problem over the years is his inability to draw walks, yet in 2008 Crede pumped out a 8% walk rate, which is a HUGE improvement from his career 5.6% mark and from his 4.7% mark in that glorious 2006 season. It’s difficult to fake an improved walk rate, so we have to assume that Crede was simply more disciplined at the plate in ’08.

Here’s the other interesting tidbit from 2008… Crede finished the season with the lowest line drive rate of his career (14.3% in 2008, 18% for his career), and only 69% of those line drives fell in for hits (5% lower than his career norm, and 4% lower than the MLB average).

He was unlucky that more line drives didn’t fall in, but he can also blame himself for not hitting enough line drives.

All in all, his .248/.314/.460 line in 2008 was right where it should have been, taking into account his low line drive rate.

Offensive Conclusions: Even with a career-low line drive rate in 2008, Crede put up respectable offensive numbers, especially in the power department. Just for fun, let’s swap out Crede’s 14.3% LD rate from ’08 and plug in a 16% LD rate (which is still below his career average). And let’s also say 74% of those LDs fell in for hits, instead of the UNLUCKY 69%.

This is what Crede’s ’08 line would have looked like:  .259/.324/.482 with 18 HR in 373 PA

That’s 11 points in batting average, 10 points in OBP and 22 points in slugging. All with a more “normal” amount of line drives.

Of course, everything depends on Crede’s health. But it’s VERY realistic that he could put up .259/.324/.482 in 2009. And over 500 PAs, those 17 or 18 HR would turn into 24 HR.

And, of course, those power numbers are also VERY LIKELY TO DECLINE when Crede moves away from the friendly confines of U.S. Cellular Field.

DEFENSE

When healthy (and even when NOT 100% healthy), Crede is a wizard with the glove. Pick any defensive metric.

Fielding Bible:

- In 1,260 innings in 2006, Crede was 31 plays above average (#1 in baseball).

- In 1,223 innings from ’07-’08, Crede was 24 plays above average, injuries and all.

Ultimate Zone Rating:

- Measured per 150 games, Crede saved 13 runs compared to the average 3B in 2006. He saved 20.4 and 8.2 in ’07-’08. The 8.2 UZR/150 still ranks top 10, but the decline is noticeable.

Revized Zone Rating:

- At or near the top of the 3B list each of the past three years.  

Other Defensive Notes To Consider:

- A study by Tom Tango (recently hired by the Mariners) shows that approximately 10 runs = 1 win (makes sense, if both teams average roughly 4-5 runs per game). Similarly, Tango also deduced that 1 defensive “play” = roughly .8 runs.

In that case, going off of The Fielding Bible’s +31 and +24 for Crede since 2006 (+55), he would be worth roughly FOUR WINS more than the average third baseman over the last three years.

DEFENSE ALONE.

And he didn’t even play full seasons in ’07 or ’08!

Now, this information is obviously still somewhat subjective, but the point is that Crede is a superior defensive third baseman when healthy. Far superior to Buscher/Harris, far superior to Garrett Atkins, far superior to Ty Wigginton, far superior to Michael Young, and far superior to just about any rumored name except for Adrian Beltre.

MY ADVICE

Any team interested in signing Joe Crede must take into consideration the following items:

• Crede’s line drive rate has dropped each year since 2005, but part of that is likely due to injuries. But even at the 14.3% rate from 2008, Crede’s numbers were respectable. If that number rebounds even slightly, he is likely to finish the season somewhere between his ’08 and ’06 numbers… Probably much closer to ’08.

• Crede increased his BB rate by nearly 100% in 2008. If he has indeed figured out how to draw more walks (and it appears as if he did), Crede becomes a more valuable hitter by default.

• Crede’s power numbers are INFLATED because he plays his home games at U.S. Cellular Field -- one of Major League Baseball’s home run hotbeds. Any stadium Crede moves to (with the exception of Texas, Coors, GAB, Philly, and a couple others) he runs the risk of seeing a decrease in power numbers.

• If Crede, 31, is wearing down at all, it’s because of injuries. He’s only played more than 144 games ONCE since 2003.

• Crede is one of the best defensive third baseman in baseball, even with a slight dropoff in 2008. He is venturing into his 30’s now, so we can’t expect him to be elite forever, but he’s a lock to be a top-5 defender for at least another year (if healthy).

• Can you squeeze 135 games out of Crede? It’s important to have somebody who can fill in for Crede once or twice a week without a huge dropoff, and the Twins have that option in Buscher and/or Harris. Other teams might not be so lucky.

• IF HEALTHY seems to be the key phrase throughout this profile… If Crede is healthy, he would provide elite defense and some nice pop offensively.

*** His true value depends on how many games he can play and how often he can play in the field, because if Crede isn’t playing defense at a high level, his total value is no better than any other league-average replacement.

The Twins signed Jason Kubel to a 2-year $7 million deal with a third-year option, effectively locking the DH/OF up through his arbitration years.

I happen to like that the Twins are being proactive with one of their arbitration eligible guys. Kubel is only 27 years old, which means, hypothetically, that he's entering his prime.

He obviously leaves something to be desired defensively, but the Twins already have four other guys (Gomez, Span, Cuddyer and Young) whom they play in the outfield. Kubel is a DH. His defense is essentially irrelevant.

To put his 2008 numbers into perspective, Kubel -- after prorating his 463 at bats into the 580 team DH at bats the Twins received -- created 90 runs.

If we were to plug the average American League DH into those same 580 at bats, the sample player would have been worth 86 runs.

By these numbers, Kubel was just a shade better than a league-average replacement.

(We also must take into context that Kubel doesn't always bat against left-handed pitchers, which means he likely won't reach 580 at bats anyways... The Twins will fill those remaining at bats with somebody other than Kubel).

On the surface it looks like the Twins are locking up a league-average DH for 2-3 years... But A.) Kubel, at 27, could still be trending upward... B.) two years, $7 million or three years, $12 million is EXTREMELY cheap for just about any player... and C.) the Twins have had a hell of a time finding ANY DH to post league-average numbers.

I like the signing, and it shows the Twins are taking a proactive approach to their young players.

Kudos.

I find myself watching MLB Network quite a bit these days. I like the compiled ranking shows, the old school reruns, and anything baseball-related in general.

But I’m a little disappointed that MLB Network failed to take advantage of the opportunity to use their newfound platform to put some real baseball analysis on from time to time. No offense to Harold Reynolds, Dan Pleasac and Barry Larkin. I enjoyed watching those guys when I was a kid. But they simply don’t have a full grasp on all of the necessary information, much like most of the guys on ESPN or any other mainstream baseball media entity.

For example…

When I tuned in, the topic revolved around Michael Young and the Texas Rangers. The Rangers asked Young to move from shortstop to third base earlier this month to make room for Elvis Andrus, and Young, in turn, requested to be traded.

Reynolds, Larkin and Pleasac -- completely oblivious to modern fielding statistics -- ripped the Rangers for moving a “Gold Glove” shortstop to third base for an unproven rookie.

On top everything, Texas is now looking at signing Omar Vizquel as a plan ‘B’, should Andrus not play well during spring training.

Reynolds, Larkin and Pleasac all agreed that signing Vizquel would be like stabbing Young -- a Gold Glove shortstop -- in the back. In their estimation, why should the Rangers look for a new shortstop when they already have a guy who plays at an “All-Star level”?

Well, I spent plenty of time breaking down Young’s statistical regression last week, so I’m not going to get numbers-heavy today. But is it too much to ask MLB Network (and other mainstream media companies) to put more effort into research? And keeping up with the times?

Forget about the Gold Glove award. Over the last three seasons Young was -10, -15, and -7 plays compared to the average shortstop (according to the Fielding Bible), good enough to rank 28th, 32nd and 27th in the Majors. During that same time span Vizquel was +7, +20, and +9. That’s 9th, 3rd, and 9th in the Majors. Omar can still flash the leather.

So, Harold, Dan, and Barry… I’m guessing it’s possible that the Rangers are aware of Young’s defensive shortcomings as a shortstop, and it’s just easier to tell him they want to “make room for the young guy”, as opposed to saying, “Hey Michael, you are a terrible defender at shortstop and you are costing us runs.”

But I’m also guessing that Harold, Dan and Barry -- and maybe even the decision makers at the MLB Network -- have no idea how below-average Young really is at shortstop.

Young isn’t getting stabbed in the back. He’s being fed a cold dose of reality.

Rant over.